Topic Significance & Study Purpose/Background/Rationale
Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL) that relapses following autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) is costly to treat and carries an unfavorable prognosis. Brentuximab vedotin (BV), a novel agent to reduce the risk of relapse following ASCT, offers the potential to be both effective and cost-effective. Anticipating the results of the AETHERA trial, we constructed a decision model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of BV vs. best supportive care (BSC) for adult HL patients at high risk of relapse following ASCT.
Methods, Intervention, & Analysis
The model is constructed as a Markov process, taking the U.S. health insurer perspective and a lifetime horizon. Following ASCT, high-risk HL patients are treated with BV or BSC alone. After treatment, patients enter one of 5 health states: remission; relapse/salvage therapy; relapse/palliative care; 2nd remission; death. Transition probabilities were based on published reports, bone marrow transplant registry data, and life tables. Drug cost was ASP + 6%. Costs are based on 2013 Medicare reimbursements.
Findings & Interpretation
In the base case (HR 0.667 for BV vs. BSC), total life years, QALYs, and costs were 16.7, 13.4, and $308,000 for the BV strategy vs. 14.3, 10.9, and $140,000 for the BSC strategy. The cost per life year gained and cost per QALY gained for BV vs. BSC were $70,000 and $67,200, respectively. Economic outcomes across a range of hazard ratios (HR) for BV vs BSC are as follows:
| BV Relapse HR vs. BSC
| |||
| 0.5
| 0.6
| 0.7
| 0.8
|
Life Years Gained
| 3.8
| 2.9
| 2.1
| 1.3
|
QALYs Gained
| 4.1
| 3.1
| 2.3
| 1.4
|
Additional Cost
| $155,000
| $162,000
| $169,000
| $176,000
|
Cost Per Life Year Gained
| $40,789
| $55,862
| $80,476
| $135,384
|
Cost Per QALY Gained
| $37,804
| $52,258
| $73,478
| $125,714
|
Results were most sensitive to: (a) efficacy of BV (relapse HR), (b) monthly drug cost, and (3) cycles of treatment. In the base case, the likelihood of BV being cost-effective was 92.6% at a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY.
Discussion & Implications
BV has the potential to be cost-effective in HL patients at risk for relapse following ASCT. The AETHERA trial will provide more precise estimates of the cost-effectiveness of this therapy.